If you are someone who is serious about wanting to make money from your sports betting hobby, then learning a few basic things about betting predictions is a crucial part of your success.
It might seem intimidating to try to develop your own models for betting predictions, but the truth is that the time investment you make up front will go a long way toward helping you become a profitable player in the future.
You can rely on the betting models and prediction tips from other people if you are just betting for fun, but anyone who wants to really get the full satisfaction of winning based on their own predictions should definitely start learning how to create betting models.
Preparation and Setup For Your Betting Prediction Models
It is important to stay focused and organized in the beginning stages of setting up your prediction models.
While you will certainly have to make adjustments here and there as you continue to get better at predicting the outcomes of bets, if you are more thorough and organized in the beginning, you will have fewer things to tweak later on.
You might have read that creating accurate betting models requires a lot of complicated math or expensive tools, but this just isn’t true. Plenty of people can make successful prediction models with free tools and a few basic formulas.
Free Tools You Can Use to Create Betting Prediction Models
Every successful bettor utilizes spreadsheets to keep data organized and easily available.
You can pay a premium for modeling tools that include complex spreadsheet apps, but you can also just use a simple and free online spreadsheet tool and get the same results.
Free tools like Google Sheets can be easily accessed on mobile or desktop browsers regardless of the operating system you use. In addition, both Android and iPhone users can download the free Google Sheets app for more streamlined mobile access to their spreadsheets no matter where they are.
Another popular free program for spreadsheets is Mobile Spreadsheet by Zoho. The interface is similar to Google Sheets, but some people prefer this program’s extensive library of formulas and the ease with which you can filter data.
Any basic spreadsheet program will work for the purposes of creating an effective betting model, but the ones listed above are easy and popular choices.
How to Gather Your Data
Once you have a spreadsheet app that you like, it’s time to move on to the most important part of your model, which is the actual data.
You can read a dozen different betting site breakdowns, and you will probably find that they give a dozen different lists of data points that are “most important” for you to include.
It can be helpful to skim through a few of these guides to get a basic idea of where to start, but ultimately, you will want to compile your own list of information that you think will be most relevant for your bets.
This data can include things like individual player stats, overall win-loss records, past performances, coach-team relationships and any other points that you believe can affect the outcome of the games.
There are two ways to go about gathering information.
First, you can opt to compile large amounts of relevant data. This will help you to create a more accurate model, but it will also take considerably more time initially.
On the other hand, you can choose to take a more “bare bones” approach where you only input the data that you think is essential to getting your model up and running. It may be somewhat less accurate at first, but you will be able to begin testing it out sooner so that you can make necessary adjustments as you go.
Both methods have their merits, and one is not necessarily better than the other. It will largely come down to personal preference and how quickly you are hoping to have your prediction model ready to use.
How to Organize Your Model
When it comes to creating organized and reliable betting prediction models, spreadsheet tabs are your best friend.
You will need one main sheet that you actually use for outputting the numbers you need to place your bets, but you will also need several other tabs. You can create unique labels or even use a color-coding system depending on how detailed you wish to be.
You should create a separate tab for each team that you will be betting on or against. The fastest and easiest way to do this is to sit down and create a template for all of the relevant data points that you decided to include in your model earlier. Then, you can simply copy and paste this template into a fresh tab whenever you need to input the data for a new team or player.
Keeping all of these reference tabs in the same document as your betting model will also allow you to create formulas that pull from the tabs without you having to spend time tediously copying and pasting from one program to another. This saves you time and drastically reduces the chances of you accidentally inputting the wrong data into your model.
Building a Score-based Model
Now that you have a better idea of how to create a successful betting prediction model, it’s time to explore the “why” behind these steps.
You’ve accumulated all of this data, and you have your spreadsheets organized and ready to go, but you probably don’t know exactly what it is you’re trying to achieve with all of this information.
Ultimately, you want your prediction model to give you a score or rating for any given bet market.
What You Are Trying to Achieve With Your Betting Predictions
It’s important for you to remember that bookmakers create their betting lines with the goal of turning a profit, and they are hired specifically because they are good at what they do. This isn’t to say that players cannot ever win; it simply means that you have to be skillful and willing to take on a little risk in order to do so.
Your job as a player is to examine these betting markets and try to decide whether or not you believe there is an error in their predictions. This is where your model comes in. Bookies aren’t perfect, and sometimes they will over-or-under-value a team’s edge.
If your betting model is accurate enough, you will be able to compare your predictions to theirs and see if there are any windows of opportunity where they have potentially made a mistake in their spreads. Finding these windows is how you can make money with sports betting.
In essence, your betting prediction model should help you to create a formula that boils down to this:
Team A offense – Team B defense = overall rating score
Utilizing Offensive Data
To create this rating formula, you will need both offensive and defensive data for both teams.
It is best to go ahead and get the stats for offense and defense all at once, even though you may not be using all of it for a single game.
For example, if you are currently betting on Manchester United against Chelsea, you may not need every piece of data regarding their offense in order to make accurate predictions for that particular game.
However, you may find that you do need different sets of data for future matchups, so it’s better to go ahead and add it to your team sheet now so that you don’t have to waste time looking for it later.
When you’re gathering offensive data, you should make sure to include things like how much they score on average, what their offensive style is and who the strongest offensive players are.
It’s also helpful to keep notes of which teams they are weakest and strongest against so that you can gain a better understanding of how different play styles affect game outcomes.
Utilizing Defensive Data
Defensive data is just as important as offensive data. How well one team can keep other teams from scoring is a great predictor of who will win a game.
Make note of the best defensive players, goalie strengths and how well they match up against the various styles of offensive play.
It can also be helpful to keep track of any players that have a track record of injuries or being ejected from games because this can affect the final outcome of a match as well.
Successful Bets Are Made With a Little Luck and a Lot of Skill
If you are interested in becoming a profitable sports bettor, you will need more than luck and knowledge of the game to get you there.
It is true that there is a significant amount of time and effort that goes into creating an effective betting prediction model. However, it is best to view that time and trouble as an investment into your future.
Setting up a successful betting prediction model can easily take you from being mediocre to being great.