Whether you are betting on sports casually or as a serious way to make money, it is most enjoyable to play when you have a good chance of winning.
There are plenty of ways to go about placing bets on sporting events, but one method in particular remains extremely popular, and that is relying on bet predictions. Tipsters, or people who provide information on likely betting outcomes, have been around as long as the concept of sports betting, and it is incredibly common for punters to seek out these tips before placing their final bets.
This article will help you to understand a bit more about the concept of bet prediction and how it might be able to help you become a more successful bettor.
Bet Prediction 101
The simplest answer to this question is that bet prediction is just what it sounds like. A person who is seen as more knowledgeable and informed about the sporting event will suggest the most profitable bets based on his or her knowledge, and these predictions are made available to other bettors so that they can utilize them as well.
How Successful Bet Prediction Works
The idea behind bet prediction is that it is possible for the professional bookmakers to make a mistake when they are setting the initial odds on a game. Sometimes, the bookies will over-value or under-value a particular bet based on the information that is available to them, and this leaves a small window of profitability for bettors to exploit if they can find it. A major part of bet prediction is being able to recognize when a bookmaker might have made this type of error.
In order to recognize these types of exploitable errors, a person has to be very knowledgeable about the sport as well as the nuances of how these types of sports bets work. It is also helpful for someone to be experienced in statistics or mathematics because this offers an additional edge when planning out which bets are most likely to be profitable.
Tipsters can be people who have some kind of inside knowledge of the sport, but most often they are people who take all of the information that is publicly available and use a statistical bet prediction model of their own creation to determine what they think the outcomes of the games will be. This is why it is easier to make successful predictions for someone who has a background or interest in subjects like statistics or mathematical models.
There is no guarantee when it comes to relying on a particular tipster to correctly predict the winning bets, but it is common for these people to build up a following, especially when they have a proven track record of successful predictions. You should always keep track of your record of wins and losses when following a particular site’s bet predictions so that you can clearly see whether or not you are making money over the long term.
Information About Developing Personal Bet Prediction Models
Anyone who is serious about wanting to make money through sports betting can and should practice making their own bet prediction models.
Bet prediction models can be as simple or complex as a person wishes to make them, and it is common for people who provide betting predictions to have a unique and in-depth system that they have developed in order to try to beat the bookmakers’ odds.
There are many ways that a person can go about developing their own unique betting prediction models, so that is a topic that will not be covered in any great detail in this post. However, the best way to start learning more about creating these models is to spend time in sports betting forums and on prediction websites to get a sense for how the professionals set up their prediction models.
Ultimately, the best way to develop your own bet prediction model is to start with a free spreadsheet tool, gather as much information as you can and just practice.
You can use your model to predict the outcome of a game and then compare your results to the suggestions on popular bet prediction websites to see how they stack up. This will help you to fine-tune your model so that you can eventually have your own “edge” when placing sports bets instead of having to rely solely on the predictions of other people.
Prevalence of Sports Betting Models
People who see sports betting as a casual hobby typically do not bother with searching out successful bet prediction tips because they do not want to invest much time or effort into something that they view as a “for fun” activity. These types of bettors will usually “go with their gut” and rely on whatever knowledge of the sport they have as well as their own personal biases to place bets that they feel good about.
There is nothing wrong with this approach if sports betting is just a way to add extra enjoyment to watching a game, but it is not the best route to take if you are hoping to make real money from your bets.
Bettors who are hoping to make sports betting a profitable pastime almost always either rely on the bet predictions from popular tipsters, or they invest their time and effort into creating their own unique betting models that help them to make their own successful predictions.
The Usefulness of Bet Prediction Models
It might seem to go against your intuition, but the fact is that almost nobody can make reliably successful betting predictions based on a simple love for the sport, even if they have plenty of knowledge about the leagues and teams.
The reason that this kind of knowledge just isn’t enough to be a winning bettor is twofold.
First, regardless of how passionate you are about football or any other sport, you still need a way to be completely objective regarding how the teams will play. In this sense, being too invested in a particular team or league might even make it harder to make objective bets without a bet prediction model.
Second, there are a lot of other factors that experienced bet predictors know to take into account, and the best bet prediction models rely on continuous refinements and a constantly updating stream of information.
The Most Popular Bet Prediction Models
While the most well-known tipsters often have their own particular betting models, there are a few bet prediction tools that are widely used in one form or another to predict the outcome of football matches.
The most common statistical method of bet prediction is called a ranking system. Ranking assigns a value to each team based on the information from past games and seasons, which means that the strongest teams will have the highest ranks. The outcomes of future matches are then predicted based on a comparison of the assigned rankings.
This is a simple and relatively straightforward way to sort teams, but it does have a few disadvantages.
- Using ranking systems that are globally recognized, such as the FIFA World Rankings or World Football Elo Ratings, will not give an accurate picture of how the teams might play against each other. These types of numerical rating systems are merely a tool to sort teams into basic categories of strength.
- Basic numerical rankings are not nuanced in any way. They only measure the average strength of the team as a whole and do not account for things like offensive versus defensive play, team dynamics or play style.
- Commonly recognized ranking systems do not update frequently enough to compensate for skill changes that happen if the roster changes unexpectedly or players are injured.
This doesn’t mean that rank-based systems are useless, but it does mean that players should not rely solely on rankings when placing bets.
The preferred method of bet prediction is based on a rating system. There are many types of rating systems, and most people who use ratings will assign them based on an analysis of a specific set of criteria that they have decided on beforehand.
Ratings are much more thorough and offer a better, more comprehensive view of the true strength of a team. These ratings or “grades” can be continuously and easily updated to reflect not only the team as a whole, but also individual indicators of success such as:
- Offensive strength
- Defensive strength
- Individual team member profiles
- Home field advantage
- Past performance against other teams
Most ratings are developed by creating a simple mathematical formula, and this is how it is possible for ratings to be adjusted quickly on a per-game basis if needed. Most professionals prefer to use ratings rather than rankings when making bet predictions.
Bet Prediction is a Vital Tool For Sports Betting Success
If your goal in placing sports bets is to turn a profit, understanding and utilizing bet prediction tools is a critical part of your success. Whether you rely on a trusted bet prediction website or choose to develop your own system, bet prediction is the best path to sports betting success.